Cockles form a large proportion of the living organisms in the Inlet and changes in the cockle population are therefore a useful indicator of the biological health of the Inlet. In 1976 the former Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR) surveyed the cockles as part of the Pauatahanui Environmental Programme. The survey found that at that time cockles made up 80% of the biomass of the intertidal mudflat animals. In parts of the Inlet, cockle density reached 2500 per square metre.
No further surveys were done until 1992. In that year, the Guardians of Pauatahanui Inlet carried out the first of the regular surveys that have taken place every three years since. The Inlet environment had for some years been under threat from human activities, and GOPI was concerned that no credible measures of what was happening to the Inlet's ecosystems existed. Monitoring the size and age structure of the intertidal cockle population was known to be such a measure, and GOPI decided to adopt this measure, and to survey the cockles every three years. The National Institute of Water and Atmosheric Research (NIWA) designed a method suitable for volunteer labour that would produce data comparable with the DSIR survey, and also analysed the data collected. The three-yearly surveys, which continue to use the method designed by NIWA, are supported by Greater Wellington Regional Council, and the data continues to be analysed by NIWA.
The 1992 survey revealed an alarming decrease in cockle numbers. From an estimated 520 million in 1976 cockle numbers had shrunk to an estimated 220 million, only about 40% of the 1976 density. Since 1992 the population has varied between 40% and 50% of the 1976 figure. The fluctuation between 1992 and 2010 is not statistically significant and thus the population appears to have stabilized at this new level. Presumably the Inlet is now capable of supporting only about half of the number of cockles that existed there in 1976.
The proportion of juveniles (up to one year old and up to 10 mm in length) in the population has differed widely between surveys. In 1976 they formed 9% of the population, but at 12-16% the proportion in the 2004-2010 surveys was much higher. In contrast, 1998 and 2001 were poor years for the recruitment of juveniles into the population. The very low proportions in 1992 and 1995 must be disregarded as the methods of sampling juveniles were less accurate than those used in 1976 and since 1998.
We don't know why there is fluctuation but similar ambiguous patterns are a common occurrence in bivalve molluscs world wide. The most likely major factor is a cooler than normal sea temperature during the breeding season depressing the production of eggs and sperm and, possibly, survival of the planktonic larvae. In Auckland the colder sea conditions resulting from El Nino years in 1991 and 1992 have been suggested as a cause of the lack of cockle breeding success in those years.